This post will track the weekly over 2.5 goals football predictions on Sports Apollo. I will release the predictions in a post every Saturday morning for the upcoming days unless there is an international break or cup games. You can receive the tips two earlier free of charge if you sign up for our newsletter below.
Current Bet Tracker
Last updated: 23-September-2018
I have invested a starting bankroll of £1,000 (GBP) solely for the over-under system. 1 unit = 1% of bankroll.
I use an aggressive staking policy of between 1-5% of the bankroll on each bet, with a maximum exposure of 35% at any one time. The stake is calculated on my assessment of the overall probability and the value within the price.
The Betting System for Under/Over 2.5 Goals
I use my own betting system which I have refined over time using statistical and team data to produce my picks.
I don’t intend to reveal the inner workings of my system, but it is not complicated by any means. Anyone could create a similar system using readily available online football data to build a similar system.
When making an over 2.5 goals prediction I use the following data.
- Average goals scored at home for current and previous seasons.
- Average goals scored away for current and previous seasons.
- Average goals conceded at home for current and previous seasons.
- Average goals conceded away for current and previous seasons.
- Poisson distributions.
- Betting odds and implied probabilities.
- Head-to-head history.
- Team news.
- Time and date.
- Weather and other physical conditions.
|5||Spurs v Liverpool||+2.5||1.72||5||8.6||W||3.6|
|5||Bournemouth v Leicester||+2.5||1.95||2||3.9||W||1.9|
|5||Chelsea v Cardiff||+2.5||1.56||4||6.24||W||2.24|
|5||Huddersfield v C. Palace||-2.5||1.63||5||8.15||W||3.15|
|5||Man City v Fulham||+2.5||1.3||5||6.5||W||1.5|
|5||Newcastle v Arsenal||-2.5||2.25||2||0||L||-2|
|5||Watford v Man Utd||+2.5||2.02||2||4.04||W||2.04|
|5||Wolves v Burnley||+2.5||2.36||2||0||L||-2|
|5||Everton v West Ham||-2.5||2.14||2||0||L||-2|
|5||Southampton v Brighton||-2.5||1.69||2||0||L||-2|
|6||Fulham v Watford||+2.5||1.85||5||0||L||-5|
|6||Burnley v Bournemouth||-2.5||1.9||3||0||L||-3|
|6||Cardiff City v Man City||+2.5||1.44||5||7.2||W||2.2|
|6||Crystal Palace v Newcastle||+2.5||2.18||2||0||L||-2|
|6||Leicester City v Huddersfield||+2.5||2.5||2||5||W||3|
|6||Liverpool v Southampton||+2.5||1.51||5||7.55||W||2.55|
|6||Man Utd v Wolves||+2.5||1.93||4||0||L||-4|
|6||Brighton v Spurs||+2.5||1.85||3||5.55||W||2.55|
|6||West Ham v Chelsea||+2.5||1.64||3||0||L||-3|
|6||Arsenal v Everton||-2.5||3||2||6||W||4|